The book suggests that we need to be more aware of the limitations of our knowledge and more humble in the face of the unpredictability of the world. This, in turn, leads us to make poor decisions and to be overly confident in our predictions and plans. Examples of black swans include major world events like the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic.Īccording to Taleb, our inability to predict black swan events leads us to underestimate their importance and overestimate our own understanding of the world. These events, which Taleb calls "black swans," are characterized by their rarity, their high impact, and the fact that they are often only retrospectively predictable. Written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a philosopher, statistician, and former trader, the book argues that we are fundamentally unable to predict or even fully understand the rare and unpredictable events that shape our lives and the world around us. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions.Published: 2007 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book that challenges the way we think about the world and our place in it. We concentrate only on what we know and understand therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable.
The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society.
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